Prediction markets had themselves one other full of life week. Kalshi rolled out shiny new NFL contracts whilst lawyers kept filing lawsuits quicker than you possibly can say “parlay.”
This time it was a second tribal challenge, geared toward protecting Kalshi off tribal lands. However the actual twist got here from the NCAA, which lastly peeked its head above the parapet and muttered one thing about integrity and prediction markets after Robinhood launched pro and college football prediction markets via its app.
NCAA assertion in response to Robinhood providing faculty soccer prediction markets:
“Sport integrity is paramount for the NCAA, and we’re deeply involved by unregulated and unprotected markets that pose a risk to competitors integrity and student-athlete security. We’ll…
— Pat Forde (@ByPatForde) August 21, 2025
Tim Buckley, the NCAA’s senior vp of exterior affairs, gave us the standard formal assertion: “Sport integrity is paramount for the NCAA, and we’re deeply involved by unregulated and unprotected markets that pose a risk to competitors integrity and student-athlete security.” He additionally promised that the NCAA would proceed working with business leaders to “guarantee guardrails and rules.”
That each one sounds good, till you discover a couple of lacking substances. First, Kalshi is actually regulated. Chances are you’ll not like the way it’s regulated, and it’s possible you’ll suppose the CFTC is taking part in the position of the world’s sleepiest chaperone, however technically, it’s regulation. Polymarket, for the file, nonetheless can’t legally serve US customers, so the NCAA doesn’t must lose sleep over that half simply but.
Kalshi even has an integrity associate, IC360, although that’s a voluntary handshake, not a regulatory requirement. So when the NCAA says it needs to “work with business leaders to assist guarantee guardrails,” what does that imply? As a result of spoiler alert – no rules are arriving. Even when the CFTC awoke tomorrow with a sudden ardour for sports activities contracts, we’d be years away from an precise rulebook.
So, the NCAA is left with the choice of cozying up on to Kalshi and associates. That’s not precisely a protected guess. And in the meantime, markets are transferring ahead anyway. What’s to cease Kalshi from providing props on faculty athletes? Not a lot. The CFTC isn’t going to gallop in on a white horse to guard March Insanity. And Kalshi’s present oversight doesn’t scream “line within the sand.”
And Polymarket isn’t about to sit down this one out eternally. Crypto.com even dabbled in prediction-style betting too. The NCAA’s adversaries are multiplying like heads on a hydra, and all of the NCAA has delivered to the battle up to now is a stern press launch.
To make issues worse, prediction markets aren’t the one downside knocking on the door. There’s the small matter of AI-powered “normal predictive intelligence,” which sounds just like the plot gadget from a techno-thriller however might find yourself turbocharging markets in methods the NCAA hasn’t even begun to think about.
Briefly, the NCAA can hold wringing its fingers about integrity. However except it speeds issues up, it dangers changing into the group that was “deeply involved” whereas everybody else began betting on whether or not the quarterback would oversleep his 8 am class.
What’s on this week’s prediction markets
Kalshi
Kalshi simply can’t escape Fed drama today and the newest obsession is Jerome Powell’s speech on the Jackson Gap Financial Coverage Symposium in Wyoming, the place the world’s central bankers collect to speak store between August 21 and 23. Powell, nonetheless the Fed chair for now, has the unenviable job of explaining the place the US economic system is heading whereas President Donald Trump continues his uncommon passion of publicly undermining central financial institution independence.
Markets are determined for Powell to drop hints. For 5 straight conferences the Fed has held charges regular, ignoring Trump’s cries for quick cuts. Policymakers need extra readability on what the president’s tariffs, deportation pushes, and normal unpredictability are literally doing to the economic system. At Jackson Gap, Powell is anticipated to sketch the outlook, his final speech on the annual central banker jamboree earlier than his time period runs out in Might.
Naturally, Kalshi customers are already trading on the precise words Powell will use. Greater than $235,000 has been staked on phrases starting from the apparent “Symposium” to the nerdy “Steadiness of dangers.” A hanging 57% of merchants are betting Powell will discuss layoffs.
In the meantime, vultures have been circling over Powell’s successor. Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman, and Trump’s ally Kevin Hassett are all thought-about contenders for Powell’s chair if the musical chairs on the Fed start in earnest.
On a facet notice, prediction markets are instantly bustling with motion over the next Democratic presidential nominee. California governor Gavin Newsom, regardless of being below fireplace for allegedly blocking a casino after pocketing $2 million in tribal donations, has seen his odds skyrocket. He now sits at 28%, comfortably forward of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 13%, with practically $17 million wagered general. Pete Buttigieg, for the second, is jogging alongside in single digits at 9%.
BREAKING: Gavin Newsom’s odds to be the 2028 Democratic nominee surge to a brand new all time excessive pic.twitter.com/puUWwNpr8G
— Kalshi (@Kalshi) August 20, 2025
Newsom, it appears, has cracked open the Trump playbook. In current days he’s posted himself atop Mount Rushmore, been prayed over by Tucker Carlson, Child Rock, and a winged Hulk Hogan, and brought to writing in ALL CAPS on social media. “He’s making an attempt to imitate President Trump,” Steve Bannon advised POLITICO, and the markets, a minimum of, are beginning to suppose it’s working.
And if that weren’t sufficient, prediction markets are colliding with synthetic intelligence. Enter Prophet Area, a mission out of the College of Chicago’s SIGMA Lab, which checks AI fashions not on previous knowledge however on dwell unresolved occasions, many pulled straight from Kalshi and Polymarket. “By anchoring evaluations in unresolved, real-world occasions, Prophet Area ensures a stage taking part in discipline,” the researchers wrote.
🔮 Introducing Prophet Area — the AI benchmark for normal predictive intelligence.
That’s, can AI actually predict the longer term by connecting right this moment’s dots?
👉 What makes it particular?
– It may’t be hacked. Most benchmarks saturate over time, however right here fashions face dwell, unseen… pic.twitter.com/rhwR5WlU9d
— Prophet Area (@ProphetArena) August 17, 2025
To date, machines appear to be holding their very own. GPT-5 tops the leaderboard with an 82.21% Brier rating, whereas OpenAI’s o3-mini leads in uncooked earnings when its calls are transformed into simulated wagers. Kalshi itself has been dabbling in AI, lately linking up with Elon Musk’s Grok, whereas Polymarket has begun spitting out AI-generated summaries of its markets.
If the machines hold bettering, they might strip away all of the sentiment and second-guessing that plague human merchants. No intestine emotions, no temper swings, simply chilly forecasting. In that case, the previous “knowledge of the gang” would possibly quickly should share the stage with the knowledge of the algorithm.
Polymarket
If Kalshi is protecting issues buttoned-up, Polymarket is fortunately leaning into the spectacle of Powell’s Jackson Hole appearance. True to its social, buzzy status, merchants have pushed the boundaries of what counts as a market. Roughly 83% imagine Powell will point out the pandemic, 63% are betting on unemployment, and the most well-liked wager of all is whether or not he’ll trouble to say “Good morning.”
Behind the cheekier bets lies the actual query whether or not Powell’s speech will sign the Fed’s newest coverage. Buyers are principally anticipating a quarter-point lower in September, however as Deutsche Financial institution analysts warned earlier this week, the handle might find yourself “creating uncertainty” moderately than clearing the air.
Featured picture: Canva / Grok
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